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What are your chances of getting the Express Entry ITA in 2023?

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  • What are your chances of getting the Express Entry ITA in 2023?

What are your chances of getting the Express Entry ITA in 2023?

What are your Chances of Getting the Express Entry ITA

What are your chances of getting the Express Entry ITA?

The latest data released by the Government of Canada provides a comprehensive insight into the human capital profiles of individuals who received invitations through the Express Entry system from January to September 2023.
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During this period, Canada issued a total of 53,455 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) to Express Entry candidates. It’s worth noting that this data excludes the ITAs issued in October, where an additional 9,173 invitations were extended.
The breakdown of these numbers spans across various categories, shedding light on the distribution of ITAs by program, province, Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score, age, and occupation.

Express Entry Programs and Criteria

Express Entry functions as an application management system overseeing candidates in the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP), and the Canadian Experience Class (CEC). Additionally, it manages a segment of the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).

While each program has unique eligibility criteria, candidates across all categories are evaluated and ranked using the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS). This system assigns point values to various human capital attributes, including work experience, age, language proficiency, and education.

The data also considers Express Entry candidates who received a nomination through the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). A provincial nomination automatically adds 600 CRS points to a candidate’s profile, significantly enhancing their chances of receiving an ITA.

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Profile of ITA Recipients

Based on the available data, certain trends emerge among the candidates most likely to receive an ITA. Notably, Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates in their twenties, working as software engineers and either residing or intending to reside in Ontario, stand out as the most probable recipients.

Breakdown of ITAs by Program

In the first nine months of 2023, the majority of ITAs were issued to candidates in the Canadian Experience Class. CEC candidates, with at least one year of eligible Canadian work experience and meeting language proficiency criteria, received 23,910 ITAs, constituting nearly 45% of the total.

Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) candidates secured the second-highest number of ITAs at 15,855, approximately 30% of the total. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates followed closely with 13,655 ITAs, representing around 26% of all ITAs.

Notably, there were no ITAs issued to candidates in the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP).

Top Occupations

Certain occupations emerged as prevalent among the top recipients of ITAs across different programs. Software engineers consistently ranked among the top occupations in all three programs:

Canadian Experience Class:

  • Software engineers and designers: 1,725
  • Computer programmers and interactive media developers: 1,745
  • Information systems analysts and consultants: 1,375
  • CEC Food Service Supervisors: 1,240
  • Administrative assistants: 855

Federal Skilled Worker Program:

  • Financial auditors and accountants: 650
  • Dentists: 570
  • Software engineers and designers: 565
  • Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations: 505
  • Database analysts and data administrators: 420

Provincial Nominee Program:

  • Other occupations: 970
  • Software engineers and designers: 820
  • Information systems analysts and consultants: 615
  • Computer programmers and interactive media developers: 595
  • Welders and related machine operators: 420

ITAs by CRS Score

Approximately half of all Express Entry candidates (26,070) had a CRS score ranging from 451 to 500. Another 11,640 candidates had scores between 501 and 600.
In the higher ranges, only 225 candidates received an ITA with a score between 601 and 700, and 60 candidates scored between 701 and 800. Additionally, 790 candidates scored in the range of 801 to 900.

Interestingly, a significant number of candidates (over 7,750) had a CRS score between 901 and 1,000, while over 5,040 candidates had scores exceeding 1,000. Notably, achieving a CRS score of around 600 is possible through receiving a provincial nomination, contributing 600 points to an Express Entry candidate’s profile.

ITAs by Province and Age

More than half of all Express Entry candidates either resided in or intended to live in Ontario, receiving 31,550 ITAs. British Columbia followed with the second-highest number of ITAs at 10,655, and Alberta had 5,280 candidates receiving ITAs. Nova Scotia received 1,595 ITAs, while all other provinces had fewer than 1,500 each.

In terms of age, the majority of candidates receiving ITAs were in the 19-29 age range, with 28,970 candidates in their twenties securing invitations. A further 20,865 candidates in their thirties received ITAs, while less than 4,000 candidates aged 40 or older were issued ITAs.

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Express Entry Immigration Levels

The number of Express Entry candidates invited from January to September 2023 surpasses the total number invited in 2022 (37,335) but falls short of the remarkable 108,105 invitations in 2021.

The past two years witnessed unique circumstances due to the pandemic. In 2021, IRCC increased ITAs to CEC candidates to meet immigration goals amid the pandemic, contributing to a backlog and slower service standards in 2022.

Looking ahead, IRCC has set a target of 110,770 permanent resident admissions through Express Entry programs in 2024, with a subsequent increase to 117,500 annually in both 2025 and 2026. It’s important to note that the number of ITAs issued tends to be lower than the number of admissions, as successful candidates can include their partners and children, meeting IRCC criteria.

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